2 articles de M K Bhadrakumar aujourd’hui :
Having said that, the GT also coolly rationalizes the ‘co-relation of forces’ and underscores that the stakes are high for China, and, therefore, it will be prudent strategy for China to encourage Russia to stand up to the West.
In sum, Chinese propaganda will be sympathetic to Russia, while Beijing’s diplomacy will steer a middle path keeping in view China’s relations with both Russia and the US. Clearly, China is conscious that it will be the winner in any confrontation between Russia and the West. (See my article in today’s Deccan Herald, Implausible reality.)
By M K Bhadrakumar, March 5, 2014
He all but admitted Washington’s realisation that the weakening of the US’ transatlantic leadership through the last decade or so, coupled with the administration’s plan to roll back military spending and shrink armed forces, steadily undercut the US’ capacity to lead from the front in global politics. Suffice to say, the US is rediscovering the core value of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (Nato) and this is being put to test in Ukraine.
The US hopes to rally the world to push back resurgent Russia, whereas the approach so far has been to selectively engage Russia on areas of vital American interests and to use Moscow’s considerable leverage to help solve world problems. The Ukraine problem at its core is related to Moscow’s attempt to integrate the former Soviet republics under the Eurasian Union. The Eurasian Union challenges the US’ project to present the Nato as the provider of security for Central Asia.
From the Russian perspective, on the other hand, NATO’s expansion and the deployment of the US missile defence system on its border regions would transform the global strategic balance in Washington’s favour and divest Moscow of its nuclear deterrence capabilities.
Impact on India
India may face negative fallouts of these big-power rivalries that can be expected to erupt in Central Asia, especially if the US reverts to its Cold War strategy to use the ‘jihad’ as instrument of policy to overthrow the pro-Russian regimes in that region. The recent visit by the Saudi Crown Prince Salman bin Al-Saud to Pakistan and the forthcoming visit by Obama to Saudi Arabia suggest that new templates are appearing in regional politics.
Clearly, the US sees the military bases in Afghanistan as invaluable strategic assets to project power into Central Asia. On the other hand, the open-ended western occupation of Afghanistan will fuel the ‘jihadi’ elements, and the implications are serious for regional security. Syria is a telling example of the danger of the ascendancy of extremists. Any rupture in the US-Russia cooperation will only complicate further the situation in Syria and make it more difficult to find a political solution.